|Equation||(# participants) x [(% participants who are re-incarcerated after program) – (counterfactual recidivism rate)] x (Impact of re-incarceration on earnings) x ($ average annual earnings of formerly incarcerated individuals)|
|Explanation||This metric estimates the impact of reduced recidivism on short-term earnings. To use this metric, the program must capture and be able to report a 3-year recidivism rate.
Number of participants: Provide by grantee.
Percentage of participants who are re-incarcerated after program: Provide by grantee.
Counterfactual recidivism rate: [0.25]. 3-year recidivism rate. (Minnesota Department of Corrections, 2016). [CFT18].
Impact of re-incarceration on earnings: [0.98]. Re-incarcerated individuals earn just 2% of what formerly incarcerated individuals earn during the year of re-incarceration. Estimated from Western and Sirois (2017).
Average annual earnings of formerly incarcerated individuals: Data provide by program. Otherwise, use the average annual earnings of formerly incarcerated individuals [$2,000], computed using ACS data (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016).
Benefits are computed for one year of additional earnings after program participation.
|References||Minnesota Department of Corrections. (2016). Performance report, 2016. Retrieved from https://mn.gov/doc/assets/2016-DOC-Performance-Report-for-web_tcm1089-299033.pdf
Western, B., & Sirois, C. (2017). Racial inequality in employment and earnings after incarceration. Harvard University. Retrieved from https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Racial-Inequality-in-Employment-and-Earnings-after-Western-Sirois/4a382dfc2efc093c85274edb81957b59a0eec6b1
U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). American Community Survey 5-year estimates – public use microdata sample, 2012-2016. Generated using Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) in the Seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Retrieved from http://factfinder.census.gov