|Equation||(# students receiving a scholarship) x (Q: % earning a higher education degree due to the intervention) x ($ additional lifetime earnings from a 2-year degree vs. high school completion) x (% causation factor of a college degree on earnings)|
|Explanation||This metric estimates the impact of education scholarships on the likelihood of receiving an associate degree, leading to increased lifetime earnings.
Number of students receiving scholarship: Reported by program.
Q: Percentage earning a higher education degree due to the intervention: [0.05]. This is estimated by Constellation Fund staff using the following formula:
In this formula, ES [0.17] is the effect size from a meta-analysis of higher education scholarship programs on the rate of graduation at 2-year higher education institutions. The effect size is measured as a percent increase. The base percentage [29%] is the average graduation rate for 2-year institutions estimated using data from the National Student Clearinghouse (2016).
Additional lifetime earnings from a 2-year degree vs. high school completion: [$112,300]. This is computed using ACS data (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016). These benefits are already discounted to present value.
Causation factor of a college degree on earnings: [0.56]. This is the percentage of observed earnings gains caused by an associate degree, which is approximated using the causation factor for some college experience (“some college”). This factor measures the degree to which the observed difference in earnings between types of individuals with an associate degree and those with only a high school diploma is causal (WSIPP, 2019).
|References||Bartik, T. J., Hershbein, B., & Lachowska, M. (2019). The Effects of the Kalamazoo Promise Scholarship on College Enrollment and Completion. Journal of Human Resources, 0416-7824R4. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.56.1.0416-7824r4
Cohodes, S. R., & Goodman, J. S. (2014). Merit Aid, College Quality, and College Completion: Massachusetts’ Adams Scholarship as an In-Kind Subsidy. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6(4), 251–285. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.6.4.251
National Student Clearinghouse (2016). National College Progression Rates. Retrieved from: https://nscresearchcenter.org/hsbenchmarks2016/
U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). American Community Survey 5-year estimates – public use microdata sample, 2012-2016. Generated using Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) in the Seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.
Washington State Institute for Public Policy. (2019). Benefit-cost technical documentation. Olympia, WA: Author. Retrieved from: http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/TechnicalDocumentation/WsippBenefitCostTechnicalDocumentation.pdf